Sunday, November 2, 2008

Election Night Predictions

With bad predictions a strong tradition in the Yellow Chair Family, I give you my 2008 Election Predictions, giving my best guess at predicting the outcome of the presidential race in all 50 states, as well as key Senate seats.

Presedential Race

Obama Wins 379 Electoral Votes:

California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Georgia (15, my surprise pick), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Indiana (11), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachussets (12), Michigan (17) Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4, both districts), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (15), New York (31), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), Washington D.C. (3), Wisconsin (10)

McCain Wins 159 Electoral Votes:

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10, but this will be within 4 points), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5, all 3 districts), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

Key Senate Races:

Democrats fall just short of 60 seats

Mark Begich (D) defeats Ted Stevens (R)-I trust Alaskans to vote out that criminal Stevens, although I probably shouldn't put much faith in a state that gave us Sarah Palin.


Saxby Chambliss (R) vs. Jim Martin (D)-December run off as neither candidate tops 50 percent

Mitch McConnell (R) defeats Bruce Lunsford (D)


Norm Coleman (R) defeats Al Franken (D)-I really want Franken to win, but Coleman eeks out a close win on election day

North Carolina
Kay Hagan (D) over Elizabeth Dole (R)-Probably the biggest blowout of the group, as one of Congress's worst blow hards (Dole) finally gets voted out.

Upset Special:
Along with my pick of Obama taking Georgia in a surprise, I'm picking Dan Seals to defeat Mark Kirk in Illinois's 10th Congressional district as a result of a strong Democratic wave election.


Mike said...

Mike's Pick: Obama 311, McCain 227

Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey
Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland, DC, Virginia, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington, Ohio, New Hampshire

North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Indiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska.

Zuch said...

The numbers have it in between Mike and my predictions (Five Thirty Eight predicts it to be 340 for Obama, 198 for McCain), but the two major reasons why I went bullish on Obama are:

1. A lot of the polls have under represented young people. The ones that have polled cell phones, which is what most young people use, have it as a 9-10 point race instead of the 5-7 point race it's conventionally viewed as. If it turns out to be a 9-10 point race (or even 7-8 points), them I'm guessing Obama wins basically every swing state and also picks up an unexpected state or two (Georgia being my choice).

2. I think the African-American turnout will be stronger than usual, at a level at which pollsters don't project because it will greatly eclipse previous elections (which most pollsters base their numbers off of). This will be especially helpful for Obama in the south, and will take him over the top in Florida and North Carolina and be what propels a potential upset in Georgia.