Election Night Predictions

With bad predictions a strong tradition in the Yellow Chair Family, I give you my 2008 Election Predictions, giving my best guess at predicting the outcome of the presidential race in all 50 states, as well as key Senate seats.

Presedential Race

Obama Wins 379 Electoral Votes:

California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Georgia (15, my surprise pick), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Indiana (11), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachussets (12), Michigan (17) Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4, both districts), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (15), New York (31), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), Washington D.C. (3), Wisconsin (10)

McCain Wins 159 Electoral Votes:

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10, but this will be within 4 points), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5, all 3 districts), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

Key Senate Races:

Democrats fall just short of 60 seats

Alaska:
Mark Begich (D) defeats Ted Stevens (R)-I trust Alaskans to vote out that criminal Stevens, although I probably shouldn't put much faith in a state that gave us Sarah Palin.

Georgia:
Saxby Chambliss (R) vs. Jim Martin (D)-December run off as neither candidate tops 50 percent

Kentucky
Mitch McConnell (R) defeats Bruce Lunsford (D)

Minnesota:
Norm Coleman (R) defeats Al Franken (D)-I really want Franken to win, but Coleman eeks out a close win on election day

North Carolina
Kay Hagan (D) over Elizabeth Dole (R)-Probably the biggest blowout of the group, as one of Congress's worst blow hards (Dole) finally gets voted out.

Upset Special:
Along with my pick of Obama taking Georgia in a surprise, I'm picking Dan Seals to defeat Mark Kirk in Illinois's 10th Congressional district as a result of a strong Democratic wave election.